Ocean cruise newbuilding delivery and orderbook updates. Brighter prospect in a radically changing world

At long last, the size of the ocean cruise newbuilding orderbook has reversed the shrinking trend of the last five years. New orders are being placed in larger numbers, led by the mass-market segment, which means that the recovery is led by larger ships. But the politico-economic world is radically changing, and this may quickly dampen demand.

As the demand for mass-market cruising shows no sign of abating and the sector’s business performance continues to improve, pressure is on for more ships to be built. Indeed, we expect to see substantially more construction orders and deliveries in the coming years, provided the current trend is not derailed by external circumstances.

Geopolitics and shifting dynamics in international relations may be the emerging new threats to cruise business, overshadowing the issues of overtourism and the regulatory environment. This may impact the orderbook development.

Lower numbers

2024 was not a banner year for ocean cruise newbuildings. Only nine units of various sizes, totalling 21,212 lower berths, were handed over to their owners. The overall vessel capacity delivered in the 12-month period was 34% lower than in 2023.

Source: CruiseTimes Research

Newbuildings delivered in 2024

Source: Shippax Database, CruiseTimes Research

The biggest newbuild of 2024 was the 236,473-gross-ton, 5,714-lower-berth Utopia of the Seas, delivered in June by the French shipbuilder Chantiers de l’Atlantique, which also delivered the smallest newbuild of the year, the 456-passenger Ilma.

Between our last update in November 2024 and 20 March 2025, only three newbuildings were delivered. On 3 December, Viking Cruises took delivery of its latest vessel, Viking Vela, from Fincantieri, the 11th unit of the series and the 13th ship built for Viking by the Italian passenger ship builder. In compliance with new IMO stability regulations, this ship is slightly bigger than the previous ones. The line expects another similar unit in 2025. Viking’s newbuilding investment will then shift up another gear by incorporating hydrogen-fuel-cell technology in its future ships.

In the first half of February 2025, TUI Cruises celebrated the delivery of the 161,000-gross-ton Mein Schiff Relax, the first of two new LNG dual-fuel InTUItion-class vessels. This was also the cruise industry’s first newbuild of the year.

In mid-March, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd took delivery of the much-anticipated 156,300-gross-ton Norwegian Aqua, the first unit of the larger Prima Plus series, from Fincantieri. At the same time the yard launched the sister vessel Norwegian Luna, which will be delivered in 2026. Delivering one ship and concurrently launching the next one in order to maximise marketing impact seems to be the standard strategy today.

If no delays occur, 2015 will be a much better year for ocean cruise newbuildings, with 17 units totalling 37,190 lower berths in the pipeline.

Source: CruiseTimes Research

Stronger start

After five consecutive years of shrinking, the size of the orderbook showed a decisive uptick in Q1 2025.

In fact, it had already started to swell in the second half of 2024. By 20 March 2025, the orderbook was about 33% bigger than a year earlier. With reported strong forward demand and robust financial performance, the orderbook is set to continue enlarging.

Source: CruiseTimes Research

In January 2025, Disney Cruise Line revealed that it was planning three smaller, 100,000-gross-ton-class ships (for 2029, 2030, and 2031 deliveries) after its fourth, 144,000-gross-ton Wish-class ship is completed in 2027.

These ships will in fact be 20% bigger than Disney’s two older 1998- and 1999-built ships, the 83,300-gross-ton and 1,754-lower-berth Disney Magic and Disney Wonder.

The new plan, if completed on schedule, will mean that by 2031, the line will be a 13-ship operator – no longer a small cruise line.

It is meaningful to note that brands like Viking and Disney are expanding in the mid-size ship market. This may be a sound strategy, as it means that these lines will be able to access more ports than can some of their bigger rivals. Moreover, their unwavering focus on the premium segment of the market maximises revenues and minimises competition from their bigger mass-market contemporaries.

In our last update, we mentioned that the prospect for mid-size ships would be brighter. We may be seeing the beginning of this trend now.

But large-size ships will continue to be the backbone of the orderbook. In the second half of January, Royal Caribbean Group signed an agreement with Chantiers de l’Atlantique for a sixth 140,600-gross-ton Edge-class ship, a sister to Celebrity Xcel, which was scheduled to enter service for Celebrity Cruises in 2025. This sixth vessel will be delivered in 2028.

On 5 February, it was reported that Fincantieri and Norwegian Cruise Line reached a firm agreement for four giant 226,000-gross-ton newbuilds, at a total cost of over $9 billion, slated for deliveries in 2030, 2032, 2034, and 2036. This was the largest single order ever received by the Italian shipbuilder. The original letter of intent was signed in April 2024. Judging by the contract price, these may become the most expensive mass-market cruise ships ever built.

Changing world

Just as the industry begins to enjoy a new golden era, uncertainty returns yet again. Aside from the seemingly hostile attitude of the new US administration towards the cruise business, Europe begins to rearm itself (see feature on this topic on page 16).

European countries may be transitioning from welfare states to warfare states. This could mean tighter and costlier credit regimes, which will impact heavily on shipbuilding, especially when European cruise ship builders are already experiencing balance-of-payment issues.

Europe’s rearmament also means heightening geopolitical tensions. This usually leads to sharp rises in oil and commodity prices, as well as supply chain disruptions, which are already a major issue. None of these is conducive to a healthy orderbook development.

Ocean cruise newbuilding orderbook on 20 March 2025 (140,000 gross tons and above)

Source: CruiseTimes Research

Ocean cruise newbuilding orderbook on 20 March 2025 (45,000–139,999 gross tons)

Source: CruiseTimes Research

Ocean cruise newbuilding orderbook on 20 March 2025 (small, upscale, & expedition)

Source: CruiseTimes Research