Ocean cruise newbuilding delivery and orderbook updates. A new wave coming

The effect of fewer new orders during the pandemic is being felt. But the trend might be reversing.

After four years of relative inactivity, the orderbook has shrunk to its smallest size for more than a decade.

But the hesitation has ended, as the sector quickly recovered from the pandemic onto a firm trajectory of expansion. The demand for newbuilds is once again strong. Cruise lines are now in a better financial position to plan new ships.

Source: CruiseTimes Research

Normalised numbers

The year 2023 saw 19 ocean cruise newbuilds delivered, totalling more than 1.4 million gross tons and 32,295 lower berths. These vessels included the biggest passenger ship in the world to date, Icon of the Seas, and the first Chinese domestically built mass-market cruise ship, Adora Magic City.

The volume of newbuilds was lower than that of the peak year of 2022, as expected, but it was still a good crop. All the indicators suggest that the deliveries for the next two to three years will remain moderate to low in volumes, primarily because of the absence of new orders during the pandemic years. This trend will then reverse if new orders are forthcoming, as anticipated.

Newbuilding deliveries 2023

Source: CruiseTimes Research

Source: CruiseTimes Research

Source: CruiseTimes Research

Since our November 2023 update, Royal Caribbean International, towards the end of November, took delivery of what is so far the biggest cruise ship in the world, the 7,600-passenger Icon of the Seas, the first of a trio of 250,000-gross-ton Icon-class vessels that incorporates fuel-cell technology and is capable of shore-power connection.

With crew capacity of 2,350, this effectively means that we now have a passenger liner carrying almost 10,000 people at sea. This is a major milestone for the industry, and probably a serious safety consideration. The sheer size and capacity of the ship will limit the number of ports it can call. It will also put pressure on port development and shore-side resources.

On 4 December, Carnival Cruise Line finally took delivery of the much-anticipated Carnival Jubilee, the 183,860-gross-ton megaship with a massive 5,374-passenger capacity. It is the company’s third Excel-class Fun Ship. Touted as the “Ultimate Playground”, the ship would homeport in Galveston, Texas.

In mid-February 2024, Princess Cruises finally took delivery of the delayed 175,500-gross-ton Sun Princess, the first of the brand’s Sphere-class vessels, from Italy’s Fincantieri. This was the biggest cruise ship ever built in Italy. The second unit of the series, Star Princess, is due next year.

Despite the comparatively smaller volume of deliveries in 2023, it must be put in the perspective of 2022 being an unusually good year because of a distortion caused by delays from the previous year. The volume in 2023 therefore reflected a meaningful retreat, as it brought the figure down to a more realistic level in a more normalised context.

Unpalatable delays

Only two years ago, delays in newbuilding deliveries were considered a strategy practised by cruise lines to manage capital expenditures during the operational pause. Today, at a time of high demand, these delays appear to be a financial disaster for shipyards and owners.

Cruise lines are forced to cancel inaugural sailings and to issue refunds. For the shipyards this situation can mean considerable financial losses through penalties.

In January 2024, Princess Cruises and Fincantieri issued a joint statement confirming the delay of delivery of the line’s next newbuild, Sun Princess, blaming “unforeseen challenges”. The delay forced Princess to cancel its planned 8 February inauguration cruise due for departure from Barcelona.

In February, Royal Caribbean International announced that its next major newbuild, the 250,000-gross-ton Star of the Seas, would be delayed. The line cancelled two August 2025 maiden sailings, to the consternation of its customers.

New wave

By the beginning of 2024, there were strong indications that another wave of new orders was on the way. The shrinking orderbook was on the threshold of being injected with new life.

Carnival Corporation & plc was reportedly planning a new series of 200,000-gross-ton vessels; it was on the verge of placing a $5 billion, four-vessel order with Fincantieri. The group may be entering the league of 200,000-gross-ton vessels for the first time, joining Royal Caribbean Group and MSC Cruises.

In December 2023, Italian shipbuilder T. Mariotti signed the newbuilding contract for the luxury super-yacht Aman at Sea with Aman Group and Cruise Saudi. The vessel is scheduled to enter service in 2027.

On 20 December, the Okayama-based Japanese transport company Ryobi Holdings Group entered into an agreement with the Portuguese shipbuilder West Sea to build a 120-passenger cruise ship. The vessel, scheduled for delivery in 2027, will cruise the SETO Inland Sea and the Southwest Islands, including Okinawa, a region that large ships cannot visit.

The biggest and most significant post-pandemic newbuilding headline, so far, came on 13 February 2024, when Carnival Cruise Line announced that it had placed an order for a fourth 183,858-gross-ton Excel-class vessel at Meyer Werft for 2027 delivery, thus ending the megaship order drought.

A day later, Royal Caribbean Group announced that it had ordered a seventh Oasis-class vessel at Chantiers de l’Atlantique for 2028 delivery.

As the sector’s financial performance continues to improve, more orders from other brands will be forthcoming. We may be on the threshold of another cruise ship construction order spree.

Ocean cruise newbuilding orderbook on 21 March 2024 (140,000 gross tons and above)

Source: CruiseTimes Research

Ocean cruise newbuilding orderbook on 21 March 2024 (45,000–139,999 gross tons)

Source: CruiseTimes Research

Ocean cruise newbuilding orderbook on 21 March 2024 (small, upscale, & expedition)

Source: CruiseTimes Research